Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella recently revealed that GitHub Copilot, an AI-powered programming tool, has surpassed 20 million users, with approximately 5 million new users joining in the past three months alone. This rapid growth has seen GitHub Copilot's user base double from 15 million in April, attracting developers at an astonishing rate.

While specific monthly or daily active user metrics are not publicly disclosed, it is safe to assume that these numbers may be relatively low. Nevertheless, GitHub Copilot's popularity is undeniable, with Nadella noting that 90% of Fortune 100 companies are now utilizing the tool. The enterprise adoption rate has increased by about 75% compared to the previous quarter, demonstrating GitHub Copilot's strong appeal in the commercial market.

AI programming tools are quickly emerging as one of the few AI products capable of generating significant revenue. Nadella also mentioned that by 2024, GitHub Copilot's business scale is expected to surpass the overall size of GitHub when Microsoft acquired it in 2018. Although the user base of AI programming tools may still pale in comparison to chatbots like ChatGPT, developers and their employers in the software engineering field are willing to pay a premium for these tools, indicating a strong market demand.

Cursor, a new AI programming tool, is attempting to challenge GitHub Copilot's market position. According to Bloomberg, Cursor had over 1 million daily active users and $200 million in annual recurring revenue in March. Today, its revenue has surpassed $500 million, indicating a growing user base.

GitHub Copilot and Cursor are gradually converging in some functionalities, with both companies launching AI assistants that can review code and capture errors. They are also actively developing AI agents that can automate programmers' workflows, allowing developers to offload heavy tasks. Nadella stated during the earnings call that GitHub is seeing good momentum in the promotion of AI programming agents.

In addition to Cursor, GitHub is also facing challenges from other well-capitalized competitors, including Google, Cognition, and OpenAI. These companies are actively launching their own AI programming tools to compete for market share in this rapidly growing market.